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The semiconductor industry is still cold, with significant performance differences, but the outlook remains promising

After a nearly 20 percent year-on-year decline in global smartphone production in the first quarter, second-quarter production fell about 6.6 percent to just 270 million units. barcode scanning solutions Overall, in the first half of 2023, global smartphone production was 520 million units, down 13.3% from the same period last year, and individual quarters and the first half of the year hit the lowest record in a decade.

As one of the most important downstream applications for the semiconductor industry, the impact of declining demand for smartphones on the semiconductor industry is huge. precision automation systems In addition, the United States unilaterally imposed advanced semiconductor industry restrictions on China, leaving many of the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers feeling a chill in the first half of 2023.

Data show that memory chip leader Micron Technology (MU. U.S.) has posted three consecutive quarterly net profit losses, semiconductor manufacturing solutions as have Samsung and SK Hynix. TSM. Leading foundry America suffered a drop in both revenue and net profit in the second quarter.

In contrast, under the strict restrictions in the United States, domestic semiconductors have accelerated the pace of students' independent innovation and research and development, so in the winter of the development of the cultural industry, it is more of a "domestic alternative" advantage, and then backed by the Chinese economic market, life is better.

However, the domestic semiconductor industry chain involves many links, and the half-year performance of listed companies in different links is also "hot and cold".

Upstream link: Equipment companies are more profitable than materials companies.

According to the market classification, the upstream semiconductor industry is dominated by equipment and materials.

The industry classification of the flush shows that there are 17 equipment companies and 16 material companies in the semiconductor industry of the A-share market, so the upstream link involves a total of 33 companies (P.S. The industry classification of the flush does not include all semiconductor concept companies in a shares).

From the perspective of the performance of the profit side, in terms of economies of scale, in the first half of 2023, the net profit of NAURA (002371.SZ) reached 1.799 billion yuan, far ahead. The company can have the most complete semiconductor technology equipment product line of domestic enterprises in China, covering the four major development areas of IC, photovoltaic, LED, panel data, including different types of etching, PVD, CVD, oxidation, annealing, cleaning, ALD, transmission, curing and other types of equipment.

This is followed by the micro and medium 688012. Net profit in the first half of the year was 1.003 billion yuan. The company is also in the leading position in the field of domestic semiconductor equipment, the main products are capacitive plasma etching equipment, inductively coupled plasma etching equipment, MOCVD equipment, VOC equipment.

Meisheng Shanghai, Huahai Qingke, Jacques Technology ranked after the above two leading companies, its semi-annual net profit is also in the range of 300 million to 500 million yuan.

It should be pointed out that from the perspective of the net profit scale of the upstream link every six months, the top four are semiconductor equipment companies, and their profitability is more prominent than that of material companies, which is called the "semiconductor industry".

In addition, in the upstream link, there are four companies with semi-annual net profit losses, but the amount of loss is within 100 million yuan, and these four companies are from the material field, including Zhongjing Technology, and Linnawei, Shengong, Tian Yue Advanced.

In terms of growth and development, there are 6 semi-annual net operating profit doubled, including Jingsheng Shares, Zhongke Flytest, Shanghai Silicon Industry, North China Chuang, micro and micro companies, Huahai Qingke, of which 5 are from different equipment management fields.

Another 182,023 companies saw their net profits fall in the first half of the year, with relatively poor performers Shengong, Helin and Zhongjing seeing their net profits fall by more than 100% over the same period.

The performance is also reflected in the share price. In the first half of the year, 26 of the 33 companies in the upstream sector saw their stock prices rise, of which 6 rose by more than 50%, all from the semiconductor equipment field, including Topcrystal Technology, Jinhaitong, Huahai Qing, Xinyuanwei, Zhongwei Company, and Fulede.

In recent years, due to the development of the economy, the construction of fabs has also shown a booming trend. In recent years, China's semiconductor equipment market has been expanding.

In recent years, the trend of domestic substitution has risen, and domestic equipment manufacturers have ushered in an outbreak period and a concentrated listing period. This problem has been significantly improved. According to the data of SEMI(International Semiconductor Industry Association), in 2022, the localization rate of semiconductor equipment in China's fabs reached 35%, which has significantly increased from 21% in 2021.

However, the value of 35% also represents that the localization rate still has a high room for improvement and development, which means that enterprise equipment manufacturers still have a relatively high certainty about the future performance.